Lambourn 16:00 Hours:
It’s one of those days, when it doesn’t matter what you fill your time with, you’re actually just waiting. Today inevitably it’s the Pope, and I’m waiting for white smoke to appear, which I don’t think it will. La Stampa disagrees and thinks it might. It’s four votes today and two smokes. The first was at 11am GMT and was black, so we know the morning counting had finished with two votes and no selection. The second will be this afternoon at about 6:00pm UNLESS the fourth round finds the Pope… so now we’re waiting for 4:30’ish, just in case.
But then at 5:30’ish we’re on VE-Day church parade, so we’re waiting for that to start and finish as well. Meantime, we need to have Chester to start and finish so that we can kick on with smoke and church, and then we’re waiting for the Beacons to be lit.
Then we’re waiting for Trump to announce his major new trade deal, which will undoubtedly cause anguish and upset from swathes of people already negatively impacted by the various lunatics running the various asylums. Actually, I suppose we’re waiting to find out whether it is even a trade deal. My guess is that it is far more likely to be a sector-specific response to the US tariff policy, so mostly pharma, cars, and agriculture.
Then we’re waiting to see if Tulip Siddiq will be exported back home to be questioned by the authorities and whether Rupert Lowe will get more Tories signing his EDM on immigration - which remains untouched by any Reform players. And whether Pakistan or India will carry on regardless, and what China and Russia might do in the interim. And whether there will be a hosepipe ban before next weekend, and whether the people next door will sell their house quickly so that we can find friends to move in.
As I continue working and doing the form, I have a live feed from the Vatican and St Peter’s Square on in the background of my computer screen. A pair of adult seagulls are beside the unsmoking Sistine chimney, and with them is a very downy seagull chick. He or she looks very young and incapable of flight, maybe he lives there. He starts to beg, and his mother regurgitates some of whatever onto the roof, which the seagull chick eats with some haste. At that moment, the chimney starts to pour out white smoke. There was a message there, but I’m damned if I know what.
18:45 Lambourn
So now we know. CardinalPrevost was not on my radar at all and, with some more thought of course, he should have been. He and Pope Francis knew each other through the South American Bishops Council, and he was quietly promoted from 2013 onwards. In 2014, he returned to Peru from Chicago, when Pope Francis appointed him apostolic administrator of the Diocese of Chiclayo. He was elevated to Bishop of Chiclayo in 2015. While there, he also served as vice-president and member of the permanent council of the Peruvian Bishops’ Conference from 2018 to 2023. During that time, Peru’s bishops reportedly played an important role in ensuring institutional stability during the successive political crises that led to the overthrows of successive presidents. In 2020 and 2021, Prevost served as apostolic administrator of Callao, Peru. Pope Francis then appointed Prevost prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops in January 2023, a powerful position responsible for selecting bishops, a position he held until Pope Francis died on April 21, 2025. On September 30, 2023, Pope Francis elevated Prevost to the rank of Cardinal. During his first months as prefect, then-Archbishop Prevost remained characteristically discreet in the media, but was reportedly appreciated for his ability to listen and his mastery of issues. A French bishop who met him two months after he took office praised his “judicious questions” and his ability to synthesize, stressing that this first contact had left him with a “good impression.”
On key topics, Cardinal Prevost says little but some of his positions are known. He is reportedly very close to Francis’ vision regarding the environment, outreach to the poor and migrants, and meeting people where they are. He said last year, “the bishop is not supposed to be a little prince sitting in his kingdom.” He supported Pope Francis’ change in pastoral practice to allow divorced and civilly remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion. Prevost appears less inclined to currying favour with the LGBTQ lobby than Francis, but he showed mild support for Fiducia Supplicans, which was discussed in the article More or Less.
The fact that he stepped onto the balcony wearing the traditional papal robes, as opposed to Francis’ totally embracement of humble white, suggests he is politically astute. He understands the signals needed to calm some of the more traditional wings of the Catholic Church; the next sign will be some sort of declaration on his acceptance or abjuration of the Tridentine Mass.
Time will tell.
The Mother of All Trade Deals was pretty well as predicted. However, the Downing Street press release, (the word muted sprang to mind), on the US-UK deal said: “We will also remove the tariff on ethanol – which is used to produce beer – coming into the UK from the US, down to zero.” As many of my friends whose families have run breweries since God invented hops will already know, Ethanol is a by-product of the brewing process, produced from the fermentation of malted barley during the brewing process. It is not used to produce beer - and will do nothing for the price of a pint. Ignorant Yahoos.
So off to start catching up on the other stuff we’re waiting for, although none of us were expecting yet more good news from the ONS which arrived just before the fourth vote. Labour gave the public sector a whopping £10bn pay rise - but forgot to ask for any productivity deal to be associated with it. Like actually turning up and doing your job. The result is that productivity dropped last year by 0.3%, following a 0.2% fall in 2023. That’s 4.6% below pre-pandemic levels. Private sector productivity, however, is 1.6% above pre-covid levels. The TPA said: “Despite record levels of government spending, this drop shows that simply putting more money in is not delivering better outcomes. Without meaningful reform, public services risk becoming more expensive and less effective.”
Talking of spending increasing sums of money ineffectively and failing to deliver better outcomes, here are my thoughts on the selection front…
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