The Seasonal Changes

Every race at Ascot analysed

As predicted, a heat warning is in effect at COTA for the USGP, with the sprint race scheduled for tomorrow at 6:00 pm UK time and the primary race on Sunday. Tomorrow’s sprint race will be fascinating, and I have a sneaking regard for Max to continue his closing trajectory. If you aren’t doing anything at 8:00 pm on Sunday, this will prove a nice digestif after a long Sunday lunch!

There are a couple of things to be aware of, which might impact the outcome - if you’re betting in play. Firstly, the steep climb up to the sharp Turn 1 is famous for first-lap action or disruption. A good launch and a clean run through this complex corner will be vital. Secondly, the heat and the track surface will make tyre wear a significant factor. The drivers and teams that best manage thermal degradation over long stints will gain a crucial advantage. That does not tend to be Ferrari this year! The result will almost certainly depend on whether Verstappen can maintain his recent winning form in Austin (as in Texas as opposed to Mini) or if the McLaren duo can translate their overall season pace into a victory. The one thing that could blight that McClaren victory? The increasingly fractious internal championship battle between Norris and Piastri, which might yet result in a dual race elimination. Finally, of course, there are the Yellow Flags. COTA has fast, flowing sections and several tight corners. Historically, the race has seen Safety Cars, which can completely flip the race strategy and create opportunistic moments for those further down the grid. However, for a reason I cannot quite fathom, the market is suggesting that it’s almost even money that a Safety Car won’t appear!

I don’t see Ferrari playing a part; the team is in such disarray over car performance, as I’ve mentioned earlier this week, so the 1-2 is probably Piastri and Verstappen, but in which order and what part will Norris play in breaking the party up? Benign? I think not.

To unscramble my brain, I seek refuge in my favourite sport, stuffed full of people I genuinely admire. People who are all perfectly happy trying to control, train, manage, feed, nurture, steer, care for, and love a 1000lbs, grass-eating, 38mph biting and kicking machine. (OK, my selections are all about 32mph, but you get the drift.)

But then, on the biggest day of the UK Flat racing calendar - apart from the Guineas, Leger, Derby, all of Ascot, King George, most of Goodwood, … and some of Ayr, and York… and possibly a bit of Chester - the racing press does a reasonable job of dissing Qipco British Champions Day. Which is, of course, supposed to be our Breeders’ Cup or our Dubai World Cup meeting. It’s our end-of-year Championships, except, of course, according to the experts, it’s not.