If it isn't Science screwing it up, it's HMG simply lying.
I am a broken man.
I have self-diagnosed myself thanks to Google Quack with Dissociative Identity Disorder (DID), formerly known as multiple personality disorder. ChatGTPjustcoughandnowtheotherone, tells me it is a complex mental health condition characterized by the presence of two or more distinct personality states. “Two or more…?” And the rest.
I am Barnes Wallis watching the bouncing bomb hurtle toward Richard Todd and the rest of the Dam Busters crew, wiping out the entire raid in a single ghastly moment. I feel the spirit of Douglas Bader as I give the squadron a cheery thumbs‑up just before plunging into the courtyard of Colditz, accidentally killing hundreds of potential escapees and with it favvourite films, yarns and books.
I already know what Isambard Kingdom Brunrel would feel like as he gave HM Queen Victoria a pair of ribbon-scissors, at the opening of the Clifton Suspension Bridge and simultaneously discovered his suspension cables load-bearing weight had been incorrectly calculated - plunging Queen Viictoria and several MPs into the gorge below. Consider how you would now speak Spanish had it not been for a lucky storm that did for the Spanish Armada - because Phillip II didn’t have a decent meteorologist - or French if only Napoleon had also been better informed about the weather.
I am the Nikola Tesla of the horseracing database world - blessed with an almost unshakeable conviction that my reserach will prove fruitful, long after evidence (and funding) have evaporated. Brilliant, but considered by my peers (when they are being kind) as having all the trappings of the eccentric visionary - or barking lunatic. Each of my personalities has been thwarted by Science and it’s ability to screw things up with the sole purpose of confounding and obstructing beyond measure, the great Scientist’s purpose.
Today I alsmost gave up.
The Boyd’s Own Paper Science and AI-powered Project (BOPSAP) had the following conversation rthis morning when I discovered an anomolay that I could not fathom.
This [key-figure] has been wrong since the very first day in the dataset — 6 May 2026 — where 100% of rows are wrong, and it never recovers. It runs consistently at roughly 50–93% wrong every single day through to 29 June, with no date where the figure resets to correct. There is no “since when” in the sense of a recent regression — this is a defect baked into how signal_score has been computed in master_dataset.csv across its entire 51-day history.
Given the documented spec history: v24 (before 26 June) explicitly stated “Max 21 points,” which is consistent with a min-rank or first-rank method that doesn’t compress ties — that earlier spec was itself wrong on the formula, and the 26 June revision to “dense_rank, max 18” was the correction. But master_dataset.csv was never rebuilt to reflect that correction, and I then compounded it by also using min-rank in everything I calculated fresh in this conversation, including the supposedly “corrected” Storming Point/confidence filter work and the SIG-doubles analysis — all of it inherited the same flaw.
The honest scope: every Signal Score figure you have ever seen from me — in master_dataset.csv, in any workbook I built, and in every answer I’ve given in this conversation — needs to be treated as unverified until rebuilt with dense_rank, because the error has been present for the entire 51-day life of the dataset, not introduced recently.
A million apologies on behalf of my team Douglas, Barnes, Isambard, Phillip, Napoloeon, Nikola and my assurance, that we will be restartying the Quest for the Betfair Grail, tomorrow July 1st, knowing that the principal is sound… just not yet fully discovered.
I thought you might like to see Sir Keir’s committment in words to HM Forces. It’s always worth reminding ourselves of how much they matter in the eyes of the politicians they protect.
29 Jun 2024 Armed Forces Day, as Labour leader “If we are privileged to serve, my Labour government will demonstrate our respect and thanks, in action… We will legislate… for an Armed Forces Commissioner… The Commissioner will help to renew the moral contract with those who serve our nation, and the families who support them.”
18 Jul 2024 King’s Speech / MOD The Commissioner was described as “a step to renewing the moral contract with those who make extraordinary sacrifices to serve the nation, and the families who support them.”
25 Feb 2025 Defence spending statement Starmer linked defence to a wider “social contract of our nation—the rights and responsibilities that we owe one another.”
18 Apr 2025 Forces housing “Our Armed Forces serve with extraordinary dedication and courage to keep us safe. It is only right that they and their families live in the homes they deserve.”
8 May 2025 London Defence Conference “We also rebuilt Britain — so it serves everyone that serves our country.” He added that after VE Day, politicians understood that those who sacrificed were “owed a great debt.”
28 Jun 2025 Armed Forces Covenant pledge “When I became Prime Minister, I made a promise to serve those who have served us… ensuring our service personnel, veterans and their families are treated with the respect they deserve — that is our duty.”
28 Jun 2025 Same announcement “Our Armed Forces Covenant will put our Armed Forces community at the very heart of government decision-making. Their courage, duty, and sacrifice are the foundation of our national values, and they deserve nothing less.”
2 Nov 2025 Defence Housing Strategy “Our Armed Forces families make extraordinary sacrifices for our country, and they deserve homes that truly feel like home.”
2 Nov 2025 Same “The least they deserve is a decent home… the biggest renewal of Armed Forces housing in more than 50 years.”
4 Dec 2025 Christmas travel support “When I came into office, I promised to renew our nation’s contract with those who serve us.”
4 Dec 2025 Same “Our Armed Forces make extraordinary sacrifices… I know how important being with family is… extra travel support… this Christmas.”
17 Feb 2026 Veterans Strategy foreword “This is a personal commitment – we will renew our nation’s contract with those who serve and have served.”
17 Feb 2026 Same “To the veterans of our armed forces, your families, and all those that support you, I extend our government’s unending respect and gratitude.”
Today’s much delayed DIP now shows that despite the Government previously promising at least £7 billion during this Parliament for military housing, including £1.5 billion for urgent repairs, the focus is overwhelmingly on drones, missiles, nuclear forces, aircraft and warships. Reports indicate that some accommodation upgrades have been delayed or scaled back as resources are redirected towards combat capability. The result is a clear tension between the Government’s earlier pledge of a “generational renewal” of military housing and its decision to prioritise rearmament.
For serving personnel, the question is likely to be straightforward: If Russia is dangerous enough to justify another £15 billion for weapons, why isn’t it dangerous enough to ensure that the soldiers expected to use those weapons can live in decent accommodation?
That tension between investing in cutting-edge capability and looking after the people who operate it is likely to become one of the main debates arising from the Defence Investment Plan.While ministers argue that the security environment demands greater investment in weapons, critics are likely to question whether improving the living conditions of the personnel expected to operate them has been given sufficient priority.
Especially when Burnham’s Social Housing plans will see Benefits claimants and Migrants of varying qualifications taking precedence