By-election today, and bye bye forecast yesterday

Day 3 of probably Ireland's greatest meeting

Lord Hovermower of Dunpuntin asks for a fuller explanation of the latest “Consultation” on Gambling taxation, to be delivered, if possible, without blood pouring from my ears. I am happy to explain.

The government's case for a unified remote gambling tax, hinges on an alleged “exponential” growth in the sector, which has come under scrutiny for employing what analysts describe as a “false comparison.” The Treasury's consultation document points to a purported 208 percent increase in remote gross gambling yield (GGY) between 2014-15 and 2023-24, drawing on Gambling Commission statistics.

However, this figure fails to account for a crucial regulatory shift during the 2014-15 period. Until December 2014, the taxation of remote gambling operated on a Point-of-Supply (PPS) basis, rather than the Point of Consumption Basis (PPC) which was used from 2015/16. Many offshore operators, including significant players, did not report their GGY to the Gambling Commission.

Dan Waugh of Regulus Partners highlights this methodological flaw, noting that the first full year of PPC taxation, 2015-16, revealed a far less dramatic growth of 63 percent. For online sports betting, the area most vulnerable to a GBD increase and a key concern for the BHA, the growth was a modest 36 percent, or a 3.9 percent compound annual growth rate – barely keeping pace with inflation. This raises serious doubts about the government's characterization of the market's expansion and the justification for potential tax increases that could harm the horse racing industry.

I hope that helps.

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As for the punting, I went nowhere near Ascot today, which was as well because everything I glanced at, and thought “Hmmm”, is either still running or was beaten a neck. On Day 2 at Punchestown we started OK’ish with a weak 16/1 5th, avoided Nuvotic who I just thought needed the run and did - but was still 4th at 25s. We then had the 9/1 winner and the 80/1 2nd in the Red Mills final, and didn’t, as we had been doing in almost every other handicap, suggest the forecast. That paid £756 or £619 depending on whether you did it with the Tote or Bookies. After that, we went backwards and ended one whole ½ point up, rather than +750. Curses…

I was right too about Jasmine de Vaux. What I hadn’t reckoned on was Paul Townend’s brilliant jockey skills, losing his irons at the clattered last, almost falling, and yet still winning without his irons. Outstanding… and costly. Galopin des Champs had a deserved and very loud reception after breaking his Cheltenham Punchestown Gold Cup hoodoo, and we were chinned in the Mares Bumper. We’re still up for the meeting, but I am reeling from my lack of conviction.

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Talking of reeling, whilst police