This week, all our monies will have been impacted, probably negatively, before the close of the market on Thursday. The Chancellor’s speech tomorrow, will, like old tea leaves, have told us our future.
By Friday, I should know for example whether my recent suggestion that Uruguay might hold many attractive benefits for the fleeing nouveau pauvre, is actually viable. One correspondent has suggested that it is God’s dullest country, which was why he had filled it with the world’s most beautiful women. Another suggested that if you liked mosquitoes it was a very exciting place to count them. Tricky call.
Either way - and to give us some sport, I have launched the BOP Budget Bingo Card for you all to play along with at home, where you are presumably working.
What’s more, if we get a completed Bingo card, I shall give every Annual Subscriber as at Wednesday midday, a free 6-month gift subscription to give as a Christmas present, to a chum. (No cash alternatives.)
So what am I expecting?
Overall, my best guess is that it will be judged by the Mirror, as a sensible consumer and pensioner friendly budget, in difficult times, caused entirely by Liz Truss, Donald Trump and Vlad the Impaler. That the budget provides a sensible cushion against the world’s problems which will have nothing to do with this government or Labour.
The Telegraph will suggest that it is an attack on rural communities; that the temporary relief it offers for energy bills, (a large chunk of which has been caused by the stupidity of The Millipede) is merely papering over the cracks; that the absence or delay of any CGT chat is frightening the markets because of uncertainty; the possible incentives to hire itinerant NEETS by messing about with the NI goalposts is deeply unfair; that the increase in the minimum wage will only weaken growth; and that the markets and our borrowing costs will all reflect a complete failure to address either of the two main issues - the failure of public service and the rise in benefits.
None of this will help improve the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer which fell eleven points to −24. Expectations for the economy over the following year fell to −36. Their report suggested pessimism is weakening spending, sales and recruitment. Strangely, business sentiment is less uniformly gloomy with ICAEW’s third-quarter confidence index recovering from −14.6 to −0.5, although God knows why.
We might hear (and in no particular order) about:
Temporary assistance with winter energy bills for those receiving x in Benefits and OAPs.
A tax on the cost of some types of cars such as SUVs based on weight. I was tempted to put the phrase gas-guzzler into the Bingo card. If he does this it will be seen as a direct attack on rural communities and all those charities that use heavier vehicles to transport patients and wheelchair users, for example.
On the subject of motoring, a fuel import duty or carbon border charge seems on the cards, which will cost motorists, but his legere de main will be a probable postponement of diesel duty whilst bringing petrol into line with diesel. We know that he is planning a PPM scheme, and he’ll provide further details of that, with a focus on electric cars. Whatever happens getting into the car or van will be too expensive for sole traders and anyone living in the country, (and bloody Manchester doesn’t count as the country!)
As an aside too many town dwellers simply don’t understand that most of us have no viable public transport system, roads that make the Australian outback look tarmacked, and parents often face a twenty-mile round trip to get to school and even longer to get to a hospital appointment.
We already know about The Mansion Tax - but I think that might have more news to come. Some sort of tapering with the aim of reducing it to £1.5m by 2030? It might involve doing away with Stamp Duty and involve an annual tax on £2m homes.
Holiday lets will almost certainly lose business treatment and associated rates relief, potentially bringing more into second-home taxation. It possibly might involve Employers NIC. Again, another hit on farmers who have diversified into agri-tourism businesses.
Higher business rates for premises with rateable values above £500,000 seems likely - but it will be tempered with some small-business relief - “because the country’s small businesses lie at the heart of our future growth”. That relief has already been swallowed up by the additional costs of complying with every Making Tax Digitally Unaffordable instruction.
He might introduce an IHT cap specifically on agricultural property - he has to do something to take the heat out of the growing Town and Country divide.
I was also tempted to add First Time Buyers to the Bingo Card. There will be something for them, but it will not one suspect be viable, affordable, available or manageable.
He will definitely announce a tax on bookmakers FOBT (one armed bandits in Olde English) although he will somehow ensure this doesn’t impact pubs and seaside arcades. He might even reintroduce some form of on-line betting tax. 2.5% tax on stakes?
No idea how he will handle booze. There is a possibility that he might create some sort of retail tax for booze that is shop-bought, which would leave pubs alone. Whatever happens, it will be more expensive to drink, but probably cheaper to get a couple of bags of zombie pills.
There will be an announcement of a major investment in cleaning up our high streets. This will be yet another example of a Government announcing the power to act as though it guarantees the ability to act. The money announced will have moved from existing budgets.
There will be a very noisy - but very selective - support for certain types of businesses, including incentives for hiring under 25s.
Windfall taxes might be replaced by a sector-specific tax of x% on profits over £xbn. That would be Banking and Energy firstly, but might also apply to Supermarkets, Pharmas and some Consumer groups. In other words, services taxpayers have to use daily.
I am almost certain that there will have to be some control over the Private Debt market. Too many calls have been made for greater control and transparency - although whatever he does - if he does - will have to be seen as not being anti-growth.
I am really guessing now - but I think he will announce a step-by-step increase in CGT to start Jan 1st 2028.
If you want an interesting exercise, simply pose the following question to whatever AI thingy you have available.
Given all you understand of the current UK financial position, what are the 20 one line budget announcements you would make on Wednesday for implementation by April 4th 2027?
I asked ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude today. On Thursday, I’ll publish their exact replies, and we shall see how much of the Budget was written by some Treasury wonk in just over half-an-hour from a beach in Malaga.